Newsletter Issue 1
"Regardless of whether we examine a financial liquid asset that fluctuates daily (e.g. equities) or a tangible illiquid asset which tends to be bought and sold at auctions (e.g. real estate or art), human behavior essentially stays the same. What I am trying to demonstrate with the above examples - especially in the first edition of this newsletter - is that once an asset becomes overvalued, it is rare for it to just move sideways (even more so if high leverage is involved).
The current investment conditions continue to be a tug of war between the super-easy monetary policies of global central banks and slowing economic activity. In most investor’s minds, there is no shadow of doubt that under the current central bank policies, equities are a “must buy” and it is this type of certainty that has me worried."
To download Issue 1, March 18th 2013 click here.
Newsletter Issue 2
"I suspect that most investors, especially traders with a focus on short term price swings, underestimate the significance geopolitics and military activity have on long term financial market trends. Therefore, investors should give consideration to a case scenario where a military conflict materializes and determine how it would impact assets globally.
I view the current rising hostility in the Korean Peninsula and the recent China-Japan island dispute as proxies in the game of chess played out between opposing powers."
To download Issue 2, April 02 2013 click here.
Newsletter Issue 3
"The majority of market participants seem to neglect the fact that markets, corporate profits, economic expansions, inflation and a variety of other trends tend to move in comparable cycles from peaks to troughs and vice versa.
The newsletter also discusses the financial front page news, with destruction running rampant through the precious metals sector. A contrarian point of view is given.In the case of the S&P 500’s earnings trend, various Wall Street analysts are expecting further growth in both the 2013 and 2014 financial years. If the estimated earnings growth would come to realization, 2014 would mark a sixth consecutive year of earnings growth - a historical anomaly only experienced once before since the end of World War II (1992-1998)."
"The wise words of famous investors always go along the lines that panics, crashes and crises create buying opportunities. In the case of precious metals, I urge my readers to take the path less travelled and BUY the weakness during the current PMs crisis, whenever they can. They will be handsomely rewarded in the years to come!"
To download Issue 3, April 16 2013 click here.
Newsletter Issue 4
"The reason I write this newsletter is because I sincerely wish all of my readers the best possible returns in financial markets, while avoiding catastrophic pitfalls (we have all made them at least once in our trading career).
As a result of the secular bear market analysis thoroughly explained in this newsletter, I continue to believe that the “Great Rotation” reasoning to purchase equities at the current levels will prove premature.
To download Issue 4, April 30 2013 click here.While equities are definitely becoming cheaper relative to the remarkable overvaluations of the late 1990s, a lifetime buying opportunity and a true bottom which long term investors can participate in, is not here just yet. I believe that one more major correction will do the job."
Newsletter Issue 5
The newsletter also discusses the ongoing commodity bear market and the recent sentiment positioning by investors."I find the story featured [in the newsletter] fascinating for the sheer fact that Joseph Fouche had incredible timing and the uncanny ability to anticipate future social trends. Fouche’s phenomenal expertise serve as a very useful set of lessons for today’s aspiring fund managers and private investors (yours truly included).
A successful investor needs to have Fouche’s ability to anticipate macro economic and financial trends, buying and selling various asset classes at the right time, and surviving “the swing of the pendulum” as conditions regularly improve and deteriorate.
While it is definitely not as easy as it sounds (otherwise we would all be over night billionaires), I truly believe that one of the major investment mistakes for private investors is to follow the crowd when it is the loudest - usually near major turning points. Instead, investors should opt for a contrarian point of view."
"When I observe the global economy and the financial asset movements over the last several months, the only certain clear cut investment I would deploy right now would be adding exposure to commodities. I sincerely believe that following the crowd’s verdict on inflation, or the lack thereof and negative mood on commodity prices, will prove to be quite a costly mistake."
To download Issue 5, May 17, 2013 click here.
Newsletter Issue 6
"After digesting the previous issues, a reader of this newsletter asked me earlier this month, when would I put money to work with my current opinions on various asset classes.
Anyone that practices investing, even for a short period of time, understands how critical timing is in this line of work. I conveyed a very relevant history lesson, on Joseph Fouche’s uncanny timing abilities during the French Revolution in issue 5, as a primer for what I am about to discuss in this newsletter.
Even though I am not an exceptional trader or a great technical analyst, nevertheless I think the market has given us some key signals over the last fortnight which are worth discussing further in-depth.
It could finally be the right time to consider some of the contrarian ideas I outlined in previous newsletter issues. Obviously, prior to executing potential opportunities, investors need to consider their own risk tolerance and investment horizons."
To download Issue 6, June 04, 2013 click here.
Newsletter Issue 7
The newsletter also discusses the financial front page news in regards to emerging market troubles and the Chinese banking credit crunch."Before I begin the newsletter, I would like to apologize for the lack of updates over the recent weeks. Usually, I plan to release a newsletter every fortnight or so, however, I was unable to do so in the middle of June, due to a very painful toothache.
The reason I opened this newsletter up with a report detailing the fundamental trends of agriculture is simply because I feel that the current situation is deteriorating rapidly and the world will soon face a food crisis. I totally agree with the FAO that “limited expansion of agricultural land, rising production costs, growing resource constraints and increasing environmental pressures are the main factors behind the trend.”
The fact that we are heading for a hard landing in certain sectors of the Chinese economy (banking, property and so on) should be obvious by now. At no point in history has there been a “soft landing” when credit growth expanded at extraordinarily high levels, like those in China today. Interestingly, the financial markets have been discounting these issues for quite some time now. "
To download Issue 7, July 05, 2013 click here.
Newsletter Issue 8
"I have received a substantial amount of emails from readers of this newsletter and my blog asking if they should jump into the US equity market. It has alarmed me to the point that, I feel an obligation to try and present a different point of view and possibly save some investors from making a catastrophic error.
Stay tuned for the part two of the newsletter (in coming days), which will feature observations on the bond market, precious metals and foreign currencies."
To download Issue 8, July 26, 2013 click here.
Newsletter Issue 9
"Some readers will surely be wondering what a brief historical story of Marie-Antoinette has to do with the global economy and financial asset markets.
Interest rates in the United States, the largest debtor nation in the history of the world (especially when we look at unofficial debt readings), are rising rapidly. If we are to avert a catastrophic crisis down the road, politicians should take a close look at history’s lessons."
To download Issue 9, August 27, 2013 click here.